I started a Virtual Reality company in 2016 and with any new technology, it was heralded as the <Insert Name Here> killer and will change humanity forever. This sounded rather familiar when I picked up the book Mastering The Hype Cycle after seeing it mentioned in the Harvard Business Review. (If you haven’t checked out their free mailing lists, definitely sign up for one. It’s worth it.)
After reading the book, I felt exceptionally informed about how technology moves from the lab into the every day. I took a lot of notes during the book and here’s a short list of important takeaways that you can gleam.
The Hype Cycle
The hype cycle is a graph that represents the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies developed by Gartner.
Hype Cycle Phases
- Technology Trigger
A potential technology breakthrough kicks things off. Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven. - Peak of Inflated Expectations
Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; most don’t.
- Trough of Disillusionment
Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investment continues only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters. - Slope of Enlightenment
More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious. - Plateau of Productivity
Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. If the technology has more than a niche market then it will continue to grow.
Source: Wikipedia
2017: Gartner’s Hype Cycle Update
Source: Gartner
Indicators of Hype Cycle Stage
Source: Gartner
How Long is The Trough of Disillusionment for A Technology?
Mastering The Hype Cycle predicts that a product on a fast track will reach the plateau of productivity in 2-4 years. A product on the long track will reach it in 10-20 years, or possibly never. There are a few indicators that can predict how long the trough will be.
4 Value Gaps That Predict a Fast Track Through The Hype Cycle
If you answer yes to most of these questions, the product is probably on a fast track (2-4 years) through the Hype Cycle.
- Performance
- The product works out of the box with minimal setup
- Integration
- It is simple to use
- It is easy to install
- It does not require new infrastructure or ecosystem to evolve
- Penetration
- It has a high relative advantage to other forms of technology
- It is highly compatable with current content
- It is easy to see others trying it and try it out easily
- It is not complex
- Payback
- The benefits of the product are easy to quantify
- It delivers immediate value for all parties
- It does not require change in processes or creation of a new model
Early Signs of Exiting The Trough of Disillusionment
- 5-10% market penetration of target audience
- 2nd & 3rd generation hardware works without help from supplier
- The product integrates into a larger ecosystem
- The consulting industry pushes methodologies on how to adopt the tech
- The press starts focusing on the expanding capabilities and market dynamic of suppliers
- New success stories start to proliferate
- Reliable figure on costs, time to value become available